COMMENTARY

COMMENTARY

Killing me softly, The Newin Chidchob story

Politics is brutal. It's a game of strategy, a trial of chance and it's played by cutthroats.

It's made for men and women who are hard of heart, quick of tongue, lacking in loyalty and thick of skin.

Thaksin Shinawatra will look to cut off the arms and the legs, if not the heads, of his political enemies.

Let's be fair, this isn't a moral issue. It isn't about right or wrong. It's just sound politicking.

The Shinawatra political machine will look to take control of as many branches of the Thai government as it can, just as any political party would.

They will bury their political opponents as deeply as possible.

This is also what any political party would do.

The Democrat Party is a strong institution with a long tradition. It is backed by an even stronger institution with an even longer tradition.

Pheu Thai may do well to marginalise the Democrats over the next four years. But at the end of the day the Democrats will still stand as the party's major political opponent.

Where the term ''opponent'' is used to describe the Democrats, we might as well use ''enemy'' to describe the Bhumjaithai Party, specifically its de facto leader Newin Chidchob.

He betrayed Thaksin in a parliamentary coup in December 2008. He gifted the premiership to Abhisit Vejjajiva. He has since been one of Thaksin's most vocal critics. Many insiders agree that he will never be forgiven by the de facto prime minister of Thailand for his betrayal.

Mr Newin has since July 3 pretty much disappeared from the news.

If there's a chance for Thaksin to bury Mr Newin in political Hades, then why not?

Let's look at the numbers.

At the July 3 general election, Bhumjaithai won 34 seats, a far cry from the 60-70 seats the party predicted it would get.

In Newin's stronghold of Buri Ram province, Pheu Thai won two seats and Bhumjaithai took seven. But the interesting numbers pertain to the party-list vote.

Pheu Thai won 329,520, while Bhumjaithai took 226,500 _ a difference of 103,020. Mr Newin must still be fuming over this.

Heads have rolled, I tell you.

Such numbers should have Pheu Thai strategists licking their chops, scheming for ways and means to drive the Chidchob political machine into parliamentary oblivion.

Bhumjaithai is made up of two political factions: the Friends of Newin faction has 27 MPs, while the Matchima faction, belonging to Somsak Thepsuthin, has seven.

According to reports, the Matchima faction has had many talks with Pheu Thai bigwigs. Insiders say that the seven MPs were very close to raising their hands in support of Yingluck Shinawatra as prime minister.

But cooler heads prevailed, for fear of the tainted image of switching sides too easily, too many times, of being a snake with too many heads.

So play it cool and play it on the down low, according to insiders, they are still talking. Within six months, the seven Matchima MPs may very well defect to Pheu Thai.

Bhumjaithai party-list MP Ruangsak Ngamsompak, who is close to Matchima faction leader Somsak, has made quite the gesture.

According to reports, he has said that he agrees with Pheu Thai MPs using their parliamentary status to bail jailed red shirts.

He even said he would use his own MP status to help bail more jailed red shirts if needed.

''It's a politically motivated case,'' said MP Ruangsak. ''We shouldn't segregate colours. I am ready to help.''

So according to such a scenario, in six months Newin might be down to only 27 MPs.

Not bad when compared to most political parties, but disastrous given that he had believed he would have up to 70 MPs sitting in parliament and be enjoying the status as the Democrats' most powerful and indispensable coalition partner.

Over time, the number of those 27 MPs may dwindle. After all, everyone wants to be in the government _ that's where money is to be made.

How quickly things have changed. Four months ago, talks were about Pheu Thai MPs defecting to Bhumjaithai. Now, it's the other way around. But Newin Chidchob's execution block isn't confined just to parliament.

Prasong Poontaneat is director of the Customs Department. He is close to the King Power Group, or the King of Duty Free. The group is so powerful people like to joke that Suvarnabhumi airport should really be called King Power Airport.

The King Power Group is close to Mr Newin. Rumours have it that the group allegedly is Mr Newin's cash bag.

Is he sitting comfortably?

As well, the Interior Ministry and the Transport Ministry were for two years the playing fields of the Bhumjaithai Party, with Mr Newin's people in place in each of the two bureaucracies nationwide.

The guillotine may very well extend to any Newin affiliates in the government bureaucracy throughout the 77 provinces.

On May 30 of next year, the five-year ban on the 111 former Thai Rak Thai politicians will be lifted.

Mr Newin could choose to ''officially'' return to politics.

The fact is that over the past two-plus years he has pretty much burned his bridges with both the Democrats and Thaksin.

It could be very cold and lonely on the Chidchob political landscape.

Many of Mr Newin's ''friends'' could play like Sathit Rangkasiri, director of the Revenue Department.

He is said to be close to the leadership of the Democrat Party, more specifically Korn Chatikavanich. He was also part of the team that seized Thaksin's assets.

But the wind of change is coming.

To comply with the Pheu Thai Party's 300 baht minimum wage scheme, Mr Sathit has proposed a corporate tax reduction, so that the private sector can comply with the populist policy.

What's more, the Revenue Department decided not to collect taxes from Thaksin's children from the sale of their Shin Corp shares to Singapore's Temasek Holdings in 2006.

It is like the old kung fu master said: Be like the wind. Flow with it, grasshopper.

Mr Sathit is a grasshopper who knows how to flow.

In coming years, the complex web of the Thai bureaucracy nationwide will be stocked with Thaksin' people in senior posts _ out with the old and in with the new.

From interior to transport to agriculture _ each and every government department all the way down to provincial and district administrative offices _ bureaucrats will switch allegiances.

This is nothing new. The same happens with every new government. That's how the system works, even though it doesn't work very well in the interests of the people.

Although the difference here is, the wind blowing in is Thaksin Shinawatra. He has beefs to settle and power to reconsolidate.

What is the political future of Newin Chidchob?

Bear in mind, Mr Newin did not get to where he is without being resilient. He fits all the descriptions at the beginning of this article and then some. Never count him out.

Besides which, Thaksin has vowed that he will not take revenge on anyone.

So, of course, everybody can rest easy, because if you can't take the words of the de facto prime minister of the Kingdom of Thailand, then what has the world come to, I ask you?